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Sorry, George Clooney, but experts say Jeff Bridges leads the Oscars' best-actor race
20 December 2009 6:28 AM, PST
According to most of these six Oscar pundits, the race for best actor isn't, well, up in the air. George Clooney is running behind Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart"). Below, the rankings of Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and me. See experts' predictions of the best actress race here and best picture here. Contenders are ranked according to their likelihood of winning. Best Actor Hammond Karger O'Neil Pond Thompson Travers Jeff Bridges, 'Crazy Heart' 1 2 1 1 1 1 George Clooney, 'Up in the Air' 2 1 2 2 3 2 Colin Firth, 'A Single Man' 4 …
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Experts split on who'll win Oscar's best actress derby
20 December 2009 6:27 AM, PST
The Oscars' lead actress race is wide open, according to Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Mark Olsen (The Envelope), Richard Rushfield (Gawker), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) and me. Check out pundits' predictions for best actor here and best picture here. Contenders are ranked according to their likelihood of winning. Best Actress Brevet Musto Olsen O'Neil Rushfield Wloszczyna Meryl Streep, 'Julie & Julia' 2 4 2 2 1 1 Carey Mulligan, 'An Education' 1 1 3 4 2 2 Gabourey Sidibe, 'Precious' 3 3 1 1 3 3 Sandra Bullock, 'The Blind Side' 4 5 5 3 4 Helen Mirren, 'The Last Station' 5 2 4 5 4 5 Abby Cornish, 'Bright Star' 5 …
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Experts predict the Oscars' best picture derby: 'Avatar,' 'Hurt Locker,' 'Inglourious Basterds' ...
20 December 2009 5:56 AM, PST
Since "The Hurt Locker" swept the New York and L.A. film critics' awards and "Avatar" got nominated by the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards and swept the box office, they're both picking up prophets' support in Oscar's best-picture race. However, I still remain the only pundit on the planet forecasting the big win for "Inglourious Basterds" as this contest really heats up. Below are the conflicting views of Ed Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Richard Rushfield (Gawker) and me, ranked according to likelihood to win. See pundits' predix for best actor and best actress. Best Picture Douglas Hammond Karger Musto O'Neil …
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New York Film Critics Circle members respond to Mo'Nique's snub
19 December 2009 5:59 PM, PST
Members of the New York Film Critics Circle are responding on the record to news that Mo'Nique will not attend their awards ceremony on Jan. 11 to accept her supporting-actress prize for "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire." On Friday, one prominent member, speaking anonymously to Gold Derby, said her snub lends "credence to the story that she wants to be paid to show up for these things."
Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), two-time past Nyfcc chairwoman, tells Gold Derby: "As a Nyfcc member, my response is more snacks and drinks for us, and more available seats for more congenial people. My guess is that Meryl will attend."
Lou Lumenick of the New York Post makes a sly reference to recent news that Oprah Winfrey will not be among the three producers to receive an Oscar statuette if "Precious" wins best picture. She's accused of being just an "air quote …
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Mo'Nique to snub New York Film Critics Circle Awards ceremony -- Is she killing her shot at the Oscar?
18 December 2009 7:41 PM, PST
"Mo'Nique will Not turn up to accept her award from the New York Film Critics Circle, which seems to lend credence to the story that she wants to be paid to show up for these things," a member of the circle e-mails Gold Derby. Mo'Nique's rep confirms that the star of "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" will not attend the Manhattan critics' banquet on Jan. 11 where director Lee Daniels will accept the supporting-actress award on his star's behalf at Crimson restaurant. However, Terrie Williams tells Gold Derby that the reason isn't because the critics refuse to pay Mo'Nique an appearance fee. Williams says, "Mo'Nique and her family will just be returning …
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Gold Derby nuggets: 'Inglorious Basterds' screening reports | 'Up in the Air' lands endorsement
18 December 2009 2:26 PM, PST
• Paul Vitello attends a screening of "Inglorious Basterds" at New York's Jewish Theological Seminary and reports, "most of the 300 people who came, after applauding for a long time, stamping feet and whooping, stuck around to hear the panel: a Bible scholar, a distinguished rabbi, the seminary’s chancellor and the producer of the movie." As Paul writes, "The first scholar to speak was Chancellor Arnold M. Eisen, who has a doctorate in Jewish thought from Hebrew University. 'Wow, that was fun,' he said. The audience laughed. 'I’m not supposed to feel that way, I know -- I’m Jewish,' he added, getting more laughs. The rest of the 45-minute discussion was pretty much a review …
- tomoneil
Can 'Avatar' sweep the Oscars? Expect up to nine nominations
18 December 2009 1:45 PM, PST
"Avatar" has already won over film critics, fan boys and many Hollywood awards, scoring best-picture nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Movie Awards. But how will "Avatar" fare at the Oscars? My guess is that "Avatar" can score up to nine Academy Award nominations: best picture, director, art direction, film editing, music score, song, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects. Forget screenplay. James Cameron wasn't nominated for "Titanic" when it reigned as king of the Oscars. Forget makeup. Radical facial changes are due to special effects instead of powder, paste, lipstick, eyeliner and hair dye. "Avatar" is also just a long shot for costume design. Below is a category-per-category breakdown of how …
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Gold Derby nuggets: Backstage at SAG noms | Oscar champ Jennifer Jones dies at 90 | TV academy tie vote
17 December 2009 2:53 PM, PST
• Amy Kaufman chats with the thespians who read off the names of nominees for the 16th annual SAG Awards at Thursday's 5 a.m. press conference. As Amy writes, "Inside the theater, SAG President Ken Howard welcomed the audience before introducing presenters Michelle Monaghan and Chris O'Donnell. Despite the early hour, Monaghan looked red-carpet ready, dressed in a light pink one-shouldered dress. O'Donnell, meanwhile, appeared trim in a dark suit. Both actors stuck to the script, reading off a teleprompter and opting not to riff on the nominees, as Justin Timberlake did at the Golden Globes nominations Tuesday morning." The Circuit • Allison Waldman weighs in with her thoughts on the TV side of the …
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SAG Awards nominations could herald Oscars glory
17 December 2009 1:02 PM, PST
Last year four of the five SAG-nominated ensembles appeared in films that went on to earn best picture Oscar nominations -- SAG contender "Doubt" was replaced by "The Reader" -- and "Slumdog Millionaire" won both prizes. Two years ago, only one SAG ensemble nominee -- "No Country for Old Men" -- made it into the best-picture race, although that film won both awards. Three years ago it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed." Last year, 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees repeated at the Oscars. As double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to …
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Poll: Who will win the SAG Award for best actress?
17 December 2009 11:54 AM, PST
Let's take a stab at predicting a winner among the Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations. Usually, SAG Awards nominees and winners line up, uncannily, with the Oscars, but sometimes they don't. Last year the five contenders for best actress almost matched up, with one glitch. Instead of being nommed for "The Reader," eventual Oscar champ Kate Winslet ended up making SAG's best actress list for "Revolutionary Road." She lost to Meryl Streep ("Doubt"). This year, the SAG five for best actress look like a good bet to repeat at the Academy Awards (unless "Young Victoria" star Emily Blunt can bump a front-runner), so maybe we'll be predicting the Oscar race too. But this poll focuses …
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Oscar derby update on the best picture race: Early awards boost 'Up in the Air,' 'Hurt Locker' and 'Inglourious Basterds'
17 December 2009 11:39 AM, PST
Here's an update on the Academy Awards' contest for best picture based upon how contenders fared at the precursor prizes unveiled over the past week. "Inglourious Basterds" pulled off the biggest rally after being dismissed early on by most Oscar pundits as a serious contender. It tied "Nine" for the most Critics' Choice Movie Awards nominations, it reaped bids in the top Golden Globe races, even scored a nod for best ensemble from the SAG Awards. But it didn't land in the top 10 list issued by the American Film Institute. Most pundits (except me) predict "Up in the Air" will win best picture at the Oscars. (I'm still betting that "Basterds" will prevail despite …
- tomoneil
SAG Awards nominations contain few surprises
17 December 2009 11:12 AM, PST
This morning's SAG Awards nominations solidified "Inglorious Basterds" as a front-runner, boosted the profiles of "Precious" and "An Education" and left "Up in the Air" hanging. Nominations for these awards are decided by 2,100 members of the 100,000-strong guild. They have a solid track record at predicting the eventual Oscar acting nominees. Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture "An Education" "The Hurt Locker" "Inglourious Basterds" "Nine" "Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire" With 10 best-picture Oscar nominees this year, it seems almost certain that all of these SAG ensemble contenders will make the cut. While "Up in the Air" earned three individual SAG acting nods, it failed to make the …
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Which vicious killer will Oscar embrace next?
16 December 2009 8:06 PM, PST
Since Stanley Tucci competes this derby season with two notable supporting roles ("The Lovely Bones," "Julie & Julia"), it's curious that Golden Globe voters chose his turn as a scheming serial killer. That's similar to a rival role in the same category — Christoph Waltz as a sadistic Nazi in "Inglourious Basterds." Hmmm ... will they split (or slash) their vote? Or is there enough evil to go around in cutthroat Hollywood? Now the really curious part. Both roles are equally deadly when compared with the ones that won the category over the last two years: Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") and Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"). Below, a closer look at Tucci …
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Gold Derby nuggets: Globe nominees not always Oscar-worthy | Sasha Stone's SAG kudos preview | Does 'Avatar' tune hit right notes?
16 December 2009 3:15 PM, PST
• Erik Childress crunches the numbers to find the correlation between being nominated for a Golden Globe and landing an Oscar nod. As Erik discovers, "In the last decade of the 54 films nominated for Best Drama, only 32 have received a Best Picture nomination. That's only 59%. Not even a 'fresh' at Rotten Tomatoes. As for the comedies, well we know how Oscar feels about comedies and only 9 of the 50 nominees in the Globes second category have been tapped by the Academy." Cinematical • Nikki Finke admits, "I love awards season because my email and voicemail get filled with negative campaigning about all the Academy Awards hopefuls. (Such holiday cheer is out …
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Poll: Who'll win the Golden Globe for best drama actor? George Clooney? Jeff Bridges?
16 December 2009 2:44 PM, PST
The reason that "Up in the Air" soared off with the most Golden Globe nominations is obvious: Everybody's gone Clooney-crazy this year. So doesn't that mean that George will automatically win best drama actor?
Hold your horses, Derbyites! Golden Globe voters like to spread their gold around. As things stand now, most pundits predict that "Up in the Air" will win best drama picture. Sometimes voters give out a best-actor bookend with the Globe prize (Leo DiCaprio won for best picture champ "The Aviator," Russell Crowe won for best pic "A Beautiful Mind"), but often they don't (Crowe didn't win for best pic "Gladiator").
Globe voters like big, hambone performances, the showier the better, like the last two previous winners: Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"). If that same pattern repeats, then Jeff Bridges has the edge for stumbling around drunk, flashing lots of ham …
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Poll: Which Golden Globe nominee will win best comedy/musical picture?
16 December 2009 2:42 PM, PST
Normally, Golden Globe voters automatically choose successful musicals in the race for best comedy/musical picture. Past champs include "Sweeney Todd," "Dreamgirls," "Walk the Line," "Chicago," "Moulin Rouge," "Evita," etc. However, box office blockbuster "Mamma Mia" lost last year to "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," probably because film critics weren't dancing in the aisles alongside crazed moviegoers.
That means "Nine" might be in trouble at the Golden Globes this year, if it doesn't rally soon with reviewers. It's only scoring 26% at RottenTomatoes.
Was the anti-"Mamma Mia" vote last year a slap at Meryl Streep? If so, she's got two films in contention in this category now: "It's Complicated" and "Julie & Julia."
Globers don't usually endorse laffers with a fratboy sensibility like "The Hangover." They didn't even nominate "Knocked Up" or "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," but I hear that Hfpa members are popping champagne corks over this one this year.
"(500) Days of Summer" was a surprise inclusion, …
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Gold Derby nuggets: Golden Globes analysis | Rock and Roll Hof inductees | 'Dexter' producer cuts loose
15 December 2009 2:30 PM, PST
• In his first forecast of the Golden Globes, Scott Feinberg predicts "Up in the Air" to win best drama, director (Jason Reitman) and actor (George Clooney) though Mo'Nique ("Precious") will best the "Air" supporting actresses -- Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick -- and Quentin Tarantino will win for his "Inglorious Basterds" script. Scott also thinks Meryl Streep as a real-life chef in "Julie & Julia" will edge out Meryl Streep as a fictional caterer in "It's Complicated" to win the comedy actress award. And The Winner Is • Dave Karger admits, "I had the strange experience of meeting Jeff Bridges for the first time in front of millions of people on the 'Today' show …
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Golden Globes welcome TV newcomers
15 December 2009 11:31 AM, PST
Coming halfway through the TV season, the Golden Globes get a chance to be the first awards to honor new shows. This year the freshman hits "Glee" and "Modern Family" contend for comedy series. And with "Glee" stars Matthew Morrison and Lea Michele landing lead nods and Jane Lynch competing in the catch-all supporting category, the Fox comedy tops all TV shows with four nominations. Besides Morrison, the other newcomer in the lead actor comedy race is "Hung" star Thomas Jane. (Though that HBO hit did not land a series nod, supporting player Jane Adams did get recognized.) They compete against three past winners of this award -- two-time champ Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock," 2007, …
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Pssst ... Here's who is ahead to win the Golden Globes
15 December 2009 10:58 AM, PST
Now that nominations are out, I'll have to resume snooping amidst Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. members soon and count up Golden Globe votes to give you the best spy report. Till then, here's my handicapping of the top film categories. Winners will be announced Jan. 17. Best Drama Picture Forget "Avatar." Normally the Hfpa scorns popcorn pix, so it's a miracle that the Golden Globes nominated it. "Precious" is probably out of it, too. Voters love it, but they're not bonkers about it like some other Hollywood insiders. They didn't nominate Lee Daniels for best director. "The Hurt Locker" has momentum coming off its double victories at the voting conclaves of the New York and …
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Meryl Streep reaches 25 Golden Globe nominations
15 December 2009 10:40 AM, PST
With her double bids for lead actress in a comedy/musical ("It's Complicated," "Julie & Julia"), Meryl Streep solidified the record she set last year as all-time Golden Globe nominations champ. Beginning with a supporting nod in 1978 for "The Deer Hunter," Streep has amassed a staggering 25 Golden Globe bids over the years. Going into last year's Golden Globe race, Streep sat one nom behind Jack Lemmon who racked up 22 lead nods and 4 wins (movie drama — 0/6; movie comedy — 3/10; and TV movie/mini — 1/6) over 40 years beginning in 1960. Streep earned nods no. 22 and 23 for lead actress in a drama ("Doubt") and comedy/musical ("Mamma Mia!"). She lost …
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