After its four Golden Globe wins, DGA nod, PGA honor, and all the attendant waves of publicity, Brokeback Mountain has pulled far ahead as the Best Picture leader -- its eight Oscar nominations, more than any other film this year confirms it as the movie to beat this year. However (and there's always a "however"), the movie with the most nominations last year, The Aviator (11), lost all its big awards to Million Dollar Baby (7 nods) in a race that echoed all the way back to 1991, when The Silence of the Lambs bested most-nominated Bugsy. To be honest, though, we're just making noise because there's not much else to do in this category. If this movie were about a cowboy and a cowgirl and not two cowboys, there wouldn't be so much hue and cry; instead, it'd be called the most predictable Oscar race in years.

If any movie has an opportunity to wrest the top award from Brokeback, it's Crash, which nabbed the Outstanding Cast award at the SAGs and has the benefit of already being out on DVD (something Silence of the Lambs took advantage of as well). The ensemble drama has a message that's easy to get on board with (racism is like, bad!), a phenomenal cast, and a monster publicity push from Lionsgate that will put it in Academy members' faces up until March 5. If Crash does take it, it'll be a Picture/Director split, as Ang Lee has the Best Director Oscar sewn up. Trailing third is Good Night, and Good Luck, which is well-liked, well-reviewed, well-done and, well, hasn't won any major awards. And right now, Munich and Capote are just along for the ride.

Of the omissions, the only other movie we thought legitimately had a chance at a nomination was Walk the Line, but it'll have to content itself with its major nominations for Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon. And considering Line didn't get even a Director or Screenplay nomination, it would have been pure window dressing in the category.

Our pick: Unless Lionsgate can pull off the biggest upset since Shakespeare in Love trumped Saving Private Ryan, it's Brokeback Mountain all the way.